Group 1 - Slovenia
Group 3 - Holland
Group 6 - Spain (or pacesetters Greece, in the unlikely event they slip up against a Northern Ireland who haven't scored in 12 matches!)
Group 7 - England or Turkey
Group 8 - Belgium or Croatia. Croatia have the better mark in head-to-head tiebreakers should the two finish where they are now, tied for second. Belgium host Estonia October 11, while Croatia host group winners Bulgaria.
The other four groups are one big mess after another. Check this:
Group 2 - Bosnia, Denmark, Norway, and Romania - any one of the four could win up second. Bosnia can win the group by beating Denmark at home on October 11. Denmark take the group with a draw. Romania have finished their schedule. Nearly a year of football has so far accomplished one thing here, the elimination of Luxembourg. Woo hoo.
Group 4 - Latvia, Hungary, and Poland are the contenders for the runnersup spot from this group. Hungary will host Poland while Latvia visit Sweden on October 11. Nearly a year of football has so far accomplished two things here. Sweden's taking group honours and the elimination of San Marino.
Group 5 - Germany, Iceland, Scotland, and Lithuania - any one of these four could wind up second. Germany host Iceland and Scotland host Lithuania on October 11. Months and months of football here have achieved two things, the narrowing of the fight for first to either Germany or Iceland and the elimination of the Faroe Islands.
Group 10 - Any one of three - Switzerland, Russia, and Ireland - could still wind up in first or second place. Switzerland host Ireland and Russia host Georgia on October 11.
What chances do Wales have then of a favourable, or at least a fairly decent playoff draw? It's not at all easy to say at this point but the guess here is they're a wee bit better than 50-50.
John Heyda