That was then, though. This is now. The new season has just reached the 12-game mark and judging is about the last thing on any Bluebird fan's mind. Celebration is more the order of the day. And why not? Cardiff City have won five in a row and have reached the 12-game mark with a breathtaking 9-2-1 record, good for 29 points. City's goal difference is a sizzling +16, their points-per-game average a mind-boggling 2.42. That average is the best around, better even than Manchester United or Chelsea as those two juggernauts are at mere 2.38s at the moment.
With City riding so high, it's inevitable that fans will wonder what this early success portends for the last three-quarters of the season. What's the track record, in this division, for staying on top when you're in first place with a quarter of the season gone? And what of City's six-point lead after a dozen games? Could that be a sign of even better things ahead?
To find answers to such questions, I took a look back at how things stood after 12 games in this division for each of the last 10 seasons. I wanted to see where division leaders after 12 games wound up at season's end. Here's what I found out, starting with the 1996/97 season:
* 1996/97. Bolton Wanderers led the division after 12 games, with a9-2-1 mark. The Trotters had 29 points, to go with a +5 in the goal-difference column and a lead of five points over second-place Norwich, then 7-3-1. Bolton went on to finish first with a 28-14-4 record, a goal-difference figure of +47, and 98 points.
* 1997/98. Nottingham Forest led after a dozen games, thanks to an 8-2-2 mark. Forest had piled up 26 points, to go with a +11 in the goal-difference column and a lead of four points over second-place Sheffield United. Forest finished first, with a 28-10-8 record, a goal-difference mark of +40 and 94 points.
* 1998/99. Huddersfield stood 7-2-3 after a dozen games, good for 23 points, +4 in the goal-difference column, and a two-point lead over second-place Sunderland, then 5-6-0. The Terriers managed only an 8-14-12 record the rest of the way, though, to finish 15-16-15 and in 10th place, with a -9 in the GD column and a mere 61 points. Sunderland came on to win the division, piling up a then-record 105 points thanks to a 31-12-3 mark and a whopping +63 in the goal-difference column.
* 1999/2000. Manchester City led the division after 12 games, with a 7-2-3 record, a goal-difference figure of +9, 23 points and a one-point lead over Charlton, then 7-1-2. Man City went on to win automatic promotion thanks to a 26-11-9 record and a second-place finish. They finished with 89 points and a +38 in the GD column. Charlton took the title, finishing 27-10-9 with a +34, good for 91 points.
* 2000/01. Fulham won their first 11 before drawing 0-0 at Wolves in their 12th game. The Cottagers' 11-1-0 record (and astonishing +25 in the GD column) gave them a near-perfect 34of a possible 36 points. Still, they led second-place Watford by only two points, as the Hornets had started out 10-2-0. Fulham went on to win the division with a smart 30-11-5 record, a +58 in the goal-difference column, and 101 points. Watford faded abd wound up ninth.
* 2001/02. Wolves opened 8-3-1 to hold first place after 12 games. They had 27 points, a +13 in the goal-difference column, and a three-point lead on second-place Crystal Palace, then 8-0-3. Wolves slipped back to third place by season's end, however, finishing up 25-11-10 with a +33 goal-difference figure and 86 points, then went on to lose in the playoff semifinals, to Norwich 3-2 on aggregate. Manchester City, in sixth place after 12 games (at 6-2-4, a +7 GD figure and 20 points), took the title via a 31-6-9 mark, a +56, and 99 points.
* 2002/03. Portsmouth led the way after 12 games, thanks to an
impressive 10-1-1 record, good for 31 points, a +18 in the goal-difference column, and four-point lead over second-place Leicester. Portsmouth went on to win the division title, thanks to a 29-11-6 record, a +52 in the goal-difference column, and 98 points.
* 2003/04. Sheffield United held down the top spot after 12 games, thanks to an 8-2-2 record, a +11 in the goal-difference column and 26 points. The Blades led second-place Wigan on goal difference alone, with the Latics, at 7-5-1, having played a game more. Sheffield United finished out of the playoff hunt, however, winding up 20-11-15 with a +9 goal-difference column, good for 71 points and 8th place. Norwich City came on to win the title thanks to a 28-10-8 record, a +40 in the GD column, and 94 points. The Canaries had been 6-3-2 and in sixth place, five points back of Sheffield United the day the Blades got to 8-2-2.
* 2004/05. Wigan led the division after 12 games, at 6-6-0, good for 24 points. At that point in the season they had a +14 in the goal-difference column and stood one point ahead of second-place Reading. Wigan went on to win automatic promotion thanks to a second-place finish and a 25-12-9 record and a +44 in the GD column. Sunderland had stood 5-3-4 with 18 points and a +6 GD figure, in seventh place after 12 games. The Black Cats came on to win the division crown, though, thanks to a 29-7-10 mark, 94 points, and a plus +35 in the GD column.
* 2005/06. Sheffield United led the way after 12 games, thanks to a 10-0-2 mark and 30 points. The Blades sported a +13 in the goal-difference column and held a three-point lead over second-place Reading. Sheffield United went on to secure automatic promotion by finishing runnersup with a 26-12-8 record, a +30 GD figure, and 90 points. Reading, in 2nd place after 12 games with an 8-3-1 mark, came on like gangbusters and finished 31-13-2 with a dazzling +67 in the goal-difference column and a record-setting total of 106 points.
Altogether, seven of the last 10 division leaders after a dozen games have gone on to win automatic promotion, four as champions and three as runnersup. One made the playoffs (only to lose in the semifinals) and the other two missed the playoffs.
A few other items of note:
City's +16 in the goal-difference column at this point in the season is bettered by only two 12-game table-toppers over the last decade. Fulham were a +25 after a dozen in October 2000 and Portsmouth stood at +18 after 12 in October 2002.
City's 12-game total of 29 points is bettered by only three clubs in the last decade. Fulham piled up 34 points in 2000, Portsmouth 31 in 2002, and Sheffield United 30 in 2005. Bolton matched the 29 in 1996.
City's six-point lead is larger than that enjoyed by any of the division's last 10 leaders after 12 games. The best of the rest? Bolton's five-point lead over Norwich after a dozen games in 1996/97.
John Heyda