So, how does one explain the poor crowds so far this season - three of the first eight at home drawing under 10,000 and only two crowds better than last year's average of 12,515? There are all sorts of "local" reasons one might point to, and any one of us can rattle off a few of those. But what about the bigger picture? Could City's losses at the gate be part of a larger, division-wide downturn? You could make the argument that at least a part of the drop-off in attendance at Ninian Park is due to some larger problems with the game's appeal, whatever they might be.
Consider the following. As disappointing as City's attendance figures have been so far this season, the downturn at the gate in Cardiff doesn't look that bad when compared to what's been going on with the other 17 clubs playing in this division both this year and last. First off, note that only six of the 18 returning clubs have seen a rise in attendance this season and of those six only two have seen an increase above 3%. (One of them, Coventry City, have a spanking new playpen to romp around in, and the other, Sheffield United, have been table-toppers for two months running.) Note, too, City's relative position in the division attendance table if last year's averages (for the full 2004/05 campaign) are set against averages for league games played to date. The club's midtable position isn't great, but it's not really so terribly bad either.
The first column for each club shows the average 2005/06 attendance so far, followed by the average increase or decrease compared to last season, then by the percentage increase or decrease compared to 2004/05.
Coventry City 18,477 + 3,398 + 22.5%
Sheffield United 20,768 + 1,174 + 6.0%
Watford 14,675 + 385 + 2.7%
Brighton & Hove 6,462 + 36 + 0.6%
Burnley 11,992 + 52 + 0.4%
Preston North End 13,894 + 5 + 0.03%
Reading 17,138 - 31 - 0.2%
Stoke City 16,106 - 371 - 2.3%
Cardiff City 11,915 - 600 - 4.8%
Ipswich Town 24,401 - 1,250 - 4.9%
Crewe Alexandra 6,979 - 424 - 5.7%
Derby County 23,367 - 1,852 - 7.3%
Leicester City 21,251 - 2,886 - 12.0%
Wolverhampton 23,312 - 1,250 - 12.4%
Queen's Park R 13,785 - 2,271 - 14.1%
Plymouth Argyle 13,121 - 3,299 - 20.1%
Millwall 8,757 - 2,899 - 24.9%
Leeds United 20,582 - 8,625 - 29.5%
At the rate things are going, it's a near certainty that the overall attendance average for the division will drop for the first time in six seasons. The last year the overall figure for second-flight football dropped was back in 1998/99, when the average crowd stood at 13,665, down from the 14,133 average for the 1997/98 campaign. Last season's average came to 17,410. That represents a nifty 27.4% increase over the 1998/99 figure. This six-year long gold rush appears to have run its course, however.
Check overall attendance figures for all four divisions for the 1994/95 - 2004/05 period here:
http://www.footballeconomy.com/stats/stats_att_01.htm
John Heyda