it'd have to be Monday's 2-0 loss to 19th-place Plymouth Argyle. The big Boxing Day throng of 16,403 definitely qualifies as a big crowd. By all accounts, City's play certainly qualifies as subpar if not diabolical.
I thought I'd take a little time to check into this. Is it really true that quality City performances and big home crowds just don't go together? If it is true, how true is it?
A problem here is defining "big crowd." What number sets a "big crowd" apart from, say, a merely good one? Somewhat arbitrarily, I've decided to go with the number 16,000. Crowds of 14,000 to 15,000 are certainly "good," but attendances of 16,000 or more have stood out a bit. So, I'll go with that figure as the starting point for "big." Attendances of 16,000 are getting rarer too. In 2003/04, City had nine such crowds, in 2004/05 but three. Monday's
crowd was the Bluebirds' first over 16,000 so far this season. Altogether, City have played before 16,000 or more 13 times since returning to second-flight football in 2003/04.
Of course, with the overall downturn in attendance, anything above 14,000 looks "big" today. Since City resumed second-flight footy in 2003/04, they've played before 14,000 or more 29 times but 20 of those came in 2003/04, when such turnouts were quite commonplace. Over the same time period City have played before 15,000 or more 20 times but 14 of those came in 2003/04. With crowds in the 14,000-15,000 range so ordinary a couple of years ago, I found it a lot easier to put them in the "good" category and reserve "big" for 16,000-plus.
Here's the list of the 13 crowds above 16,000:
2003/04
16 Aug - Bradford - lost 0-2 - 16,421
25 Oct - West Ham - draw 0-0 - 19,202
25 Nov - West Brom - draw 1-1 - 17,678
29 Nov - Ipswich - lost 2-3 - 17,833
26 Dec - Walsall - lost 0-1 - 17,531
31 Jan - N Forest - draw 0-0 - 17,913
21 Feb - Sunderland - win 4-0 - 17,337
13 Mar - Norwich - win 2-1 - 16,317
10 Apr - C Palace - lost 0-2 - 16,656
2004/05
2 Oct - Leeds - draw 0-0 - 17,006
26 Dec - Wolves - draw 1-1 - 16.699
7 Apr - Wigan - lost 0-2 - 16,858
2005/06
26 Dec - Plymouth - lost 0-2 - 16,403
Altogether, these 13 games show two wins, five draws, and six losses with a goal difference of -5. That's 11 points from 13 games or an average of 0.85 points per game. Compare these figures to City's record over the same timespan in home games played before less than 16,000. There are 46 such games. In them, City sport a record of 23-10-13 with a goal difference of +29. That's 79 points from the 46 or 1.72 points per game, almost exactly double the 0.85 ppg mark when 16,000 or more show up at Ninian Park.
You might argue that the poor play is due to the opposition. Big crowds do turn out for top opponents and they're a lot harder to beat. There's some truth in this. Of the 13 opponents, seven finished in the top six, eight in the top half. Three of the other five, though, either finished in the relegation zone (Bradford or Walsall) or might yet (Plymouth).
However you slice and dice, however, the stats do bear out the claim that, at least in the last few years, big home crowds and poor performances have gone hand in hand.