Middlesbrough are 9 points behind with three games to play. They have to win all three of their games and Cardiff lose all three of theirs to stand a chance.
Middlesbrough face WBA (away), Coventry (home) and Leicester (away).
The other team is Blackpool. Currently 7 points behind they need to win at least two games and draw one (providing City lose all theirs).
Blackpool face Forest (home), Peterborough (away), Bristol City (home).
If anything Blackpool are likely to win all three of their games. I don't think Middlesbrough will take maximum points.
The other thing that gives City an advantage is that Swansea (currently 6th and Leicester 5th) are much more "catchable than Cardiff.
Blackpool, Middlesbrough, Bristol City, Sheff Utd and Reading (five clubs) can still target 6th place.
In my mind the other teams will drop enough points to make Cardiff safe and the real battle will rage for the position currently held by Swansea.
Of course Swansea and Leicester would still have to overtake us as well as one of the outsiders like Blackpool or 'boro.
League table:
Team | P | Home | Away | Pts | Goal Diff | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W | D | L | F | A | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
Newcastle | 43 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 54 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 22 | 95 | 52 |
West Brom | 43 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 45 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 40 | 26 | 86 | 39 |
Nottm Forest | 43 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 42 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 75 | 24 |
Cardiff | 43 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 32 | 70 | 19 |
Leicester | 43 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 27 | 67 | 10 |
Swansea | 43 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 23 | 65 | 3 |
Blackpool | 43 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 42 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 36 | 63 | 13 |
Middlesbrough | 43 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 33 | 25 | 61 | 12 |
Bristol City | 43 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 36 | 33 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 17 | 27 | 59 | -7 |
Sheff Utd | 43 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 35 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 21 | 34 | 58 | 2 |
Reading | 42 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 29 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 36 | 56 | -1 |